The Yield Curve

In our industry, we look for warning signs of impending bad economic times, signs that might help us run for cover before the markets get ugly. One of the warning signs that has traditionally been pretty reliable is called an “inverted yield curve.” This signal has preceded every U.S. recession for the past 60 years.…

Hong Kong, North Korea, and the Unintended Consequences of Large Crowds

Every month brings a new crop of interesting international headlines (and some of them occasionally have nothing to do with the Trump administration). June was no exception. For starters, two million people hit the streets in Hong Kong to protest a newly proposed law that would allow mainland China to extradite fugitives from Hong Kong…

A Pessimist and an Optimist Walk into a Bar…

The month of May almost always finds us attending a couple of the best investment conferences our industry has to offer. This year, Richard attended the annual conference of the CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst) Institute, which was held in London. And Laura went to the Strategic Investment Conference (SIC) in Dallas.

Dog Food Is Not Special

Despite this week’s selloff, 2019 has been a good stock market year so far. Through the end of April, the S&P 500 increased over 17%! That’s an annualized rate of approximately 54%. Of course, annualizing stock market returns after four months is like thinking “Superbowl” after your team’s fifth consecutive win. The football season can…

Breaking Up Is Hard To Do

Brexit in a nutshell . . . A guy decides to get a divorce and says he doesn’t want to pay alimony. The judge says, “Sorry, you have to pay alimony.” The guy says he doesn’t want to pay child support. The judge says, “Sorry, you had the children, you have to pay child support.”